2020 might seem way beyond the horizon today but in reality, it is just a moment in time away. By 2020 we will have been 12 years into the current recession and, based upon historical economic trends we will by then be through it. But it will take that length of time for the U.S. and Europe to de‐leverage to any meaningful extent. It took the UK more than 10 years to climb out of a steep recession in the 1980s; in the United States in the 1970s it took a decade to shake off the shackles of the downturn. Some countries in Europe, like Germany or Switzerland, may come out of all of this unscathed ‐ but I suspect not many.
However, it's all too easy to get dragged down by what's going on, by seemingly weak European political leadership or by the self‐delusion on the part of many of our countries over the past decade.
For many years my business bible has been Jim Collins' book ‐ "From Good to Great". In it he makes the point that great businesses prosper no matter what the circumstances, because they are flexible and nimble, and because their management or leadership is more likely to see storm clouds gathering. They take the necessary action in advance, rather than sailing unprepared into stormy seas.
While some of the corporations he cited have since fallen from grace, Collins’ point remains valid. Notwithstanding the ups and downs of the European economy, there is not one of us in this room today ‐ even in a stagnant market ‐ who cannot be more innovative or take more market share.
The more I attend conferences like the World Economic Forum and others, and the more I read, the more I am convinced that no one knows what the global economy will look like in another decade. We are in the middle, or we may not even be at the halfway mark, of a prolonged period of uncertainty, with no clear vision ahead.
I have no doubt that many countries have been served by poor leadership but I don't believe its right to tar all politicians with the same brush. A common theme these days is that we are served by European leaders devoid of vision. I am strongly of the view that this is completely unfair. If the great leaders of yesterday were scrutinised to the same degree by the laser sharp focus of social media, freedom of information acts, exposes on their personal lives, stories on how they gathered their personal wealth – not to mention the hacking of their phones by massive media organisations ‐ then those visionaries of the past might also have got lost in the fog of spin.
My first prediction is that by 2020 we will see new leadership emerge – (Prediction No.1) that will have to be transparent ‐ but will be much more highly skilled at cutting through all the noise that's out there and will not fear to make the big decisions. Fearless leaders, with fine but not flawless character will emerge who will face down the media in the way that Britain has recently stood up to what many people believe is the disproportionate power of one media organisation.
In ten years time, businesses will have opened up and be fully accountable for their actions more than their promises, and their leaders will be vetted for their authenticity. They will inevitably have to be transparent (Prediction No.2), truthful and fair ...and we as an industry can do more even today to help them get there.
Our business communications is at the front of an extraordinary wave of change, where an organisation’s business reputation is defined by customer reviews and ratings, where the news agenda is often delivered by independent bloggers, and where issues move in real time across social networks to become crises even before they migrate up to major news outlets.
When in the Netherlands the bonus of ING Bank board members was published, clients en masse threatened to withdraw their deposits, through a social media campaign. ING is one of the banks that were bailed out by taxpayers’ money. Within a week, its CEO, stating to have ‘misread society’s sentiment’ voluntarily waived his $1.8M bonus and ordered his directors to do the same. The media, or should I just say “media”, will ensure this hiding becomes impossible.
Society has more changes coming – on the individual level. Because as much as we expect from our new leaders, just imagine the increased influence of the individual and how one person can cause a ripple. Individuals have more power, more information, more access to media, and more voice, than ever before and that will profoundly change our social, political and economic landscape – in ways we probably don’t even know yet.
